Report: RevPAR declines slowing for hotels - Baltimore Business Journal:

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RevPAR, as it's known in the industry, will reacn its cyclical low point in thethirde quarter, closing the escalating trend of declines in RevPAR that began in the third quartert of 2008, according to . "Ther good news is that the bottojm of the current cycle forthe U.S. hotel industryg is soon to arrive,” said R. Mark Woodworth, president of Atlanta-bases PKF Hospitality Research, in a news “The bad news is that 2009 will be the weakesf year on record for the domesticlodging industry, and 2010 is gointg to be disappointing as well. If you are wondering when we'll startg to see actual growthin RevPAR, then you'll have to wait untikl 2011.
However, if you want to know when the operatinb environment is going to get a littleless that's happening right now." Lodgingv forecasts presented in the June 2009 editioh of Hotel Horizons are based on Smith Travel Research hotek performance data through March 2009 and Moody's Economy.com'a May 2009 economic forecast for the nation. Givenn the correlation between employment and lodging the new expectation is for RevPA R todecline 17.5 percent in followed by another 3.5 percent decline in 2010. Year-over-year quarterl declines in the demandfor U.S. lodgingt accommodations started in the firsrt quarter of 2008 and peakede at negative 8 percent in the firs quarterof 2009.
The June 2009 edition of Hotelo Horizons forecasts demand to declinwe each of the remaining quarters of but at adiminishing pace. The projected quarterly declines in demand for the remainder of 2009 averag ejust 4.7 percent. Beyond 2009, the forecast callws for average annual increases in demandof 3.2 percentr for the next four years, well above the 1.9 percentr long-term average. But given the forecast 17.5 percenf decline in RevPAR for allof PKF-HR is projecting tota l hotel revenues to decreass 16 percent for the year. In 2011 and PKF-HR forecasts that RevPAR will increase on an averag annual basisof 9.2 percent, whil profits will rise at a 17.8 percent pace.